// All-In Podcast • Prediction Tracker

Every Bestie prediction.
Scored against reality.

We extracted 1,501 predictions from 129 episodes of the All-In Podcast and scored them against what actually happened. Not just right or wrong — precision AND directional accuracy.

1,501
Predictions
129
Episodes
368
Scored
23
Speakers
View Full Dashboard
Interactive filters • Sortable predictions • Alpha signals
Bestie Leaderboard
#1
Chamath
60%
19 correct • 12 partial • 11 wrong
125 total predictions • 42 scored • Directional: 74%
#2
Friedberg
52%
42 correct • 47 partial • 36 wrong
256 total predictions • 125 scored • Directional: 71%
#3
J-Cal
52%
42 correct • 50 partial • 37 wrong
474 total predictions • 129 scored • Directional: 71%
#4
Sacks
43%
7 correct • 31 partial • 14 wrong
146 total predictions • 52 scored • Directional: 73% (+30 gap)
Friends of the Show
60%
7 correct • 10 partial • 3 wrong
19 guest experts • 20 scored • Directional: 85%
How It Works
01

Extract

AI processes full episode transcripts to identify prediction-like statements. Speaker detection assigns each call to the right Bestie.

02

Score

Each prediction is verified against real-world outcomes using web research and cross-validated with multiple sources for accuracy.

03

Track

Weekly pipeline auto-detects new episodes, extracts fresh predictions, and updates the scorecard. Pending predictions get scored as outcomes unfold.

Best & Worst Predictions
Correct
Stablecoins will be the biggest business winner of 2025
Friedberg • 2025 • Market cap surged 49% to $306B, GENIUS Act signed, Circle IPO'd
Correct
Tidal wave of M&A after four years of FTC blockage
Friedberg • 2025 • M&A surged 49% to $2.3T, 63 megadeals over $10B
Correct
The age of autonomy is here — Waymo, Uber, Tesla partnerships
Friedberg • 2025 • Waymo 14M rides, Tesla Robotaxi launched in Austin, Uber-Waymo partnership
Wrong
Fiscal conservatives will be the biggest political winner
Chamath • 2025 • National debt grew $2.2T, spending hit records despite DOGE cuts
Wrong
China standoff will be largely resolved
Sacks • 2025 • Tariffs escalated to 145%, trade war intensified
Wrong
OpenAI will see peak valuation
Friedberg • 2025 • OpenAI 5x'd from $157B to $830B